Recession Regression
Blue Sky by fox_kiyo
Great news! Carbon emissions in the US were down 3% in 2008, and are likely to trend even lower in 2009, according to a study published by the EPA.
Of course, it’s a little like congratulating a sick person on losing weight – positive effect, but a decidedly negative cause.
“High gasoline prices, a slow economy and – ironically enough – a cool summer caused U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to fall nearly 3% in 2008 from 2007 levels, the Environmental Protection Agency reported today.
“It’s the largest year-over-year drop that the EPA has recorded since it began tracking greenhouse gas emissions in 1990.
“The 2009 decline will likely be even steeper: The federal Energy Information Administration reported this month that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, the major driver of American greenhouse gas emissions, fell more than 6% from 2008 to 2009.
“In many ways, the decline is intuitive. Gas prices soared in 2008. Americans drove less. Summer was cooler than in 2007, reducing air-conditioning demand and more than making up for increased heating costs that came from a cold winter. The economy slowed, reducing demand for electricity (read: coal) to power factories and businesses.
“Even when gas prices fell a bit last year, cash-strapped Americans stuck largely to their reduced driving habits. Meanwhile, the economy – and the demand for electricity – fell even more.”
As I work on UNC’s carbon inventory, I’m noticing a similar trend for 2009. The University embarked on a very successful energy conservation program, burned more natural gas than in previous years, and received a greater proportion of its grid-purchased electricity from nuclear plants, a result of flagging electricity demand in the region.
I don’t have final numbers yet, but it looks like our 2009 carbon footprint will be smaller than the prior year, the first decrease since 2004. Time will tell whether this is a healthy weight-loss, or the side effect of an ailing economy.
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