Recession Regression
Blue Sky by fox_kiyo
Great news! Carbon emissions in the US were down 3% in 2008, and are likely to trend even lower in 2009, according to a study published by the EPA.
Of course, it’s a little like congratulating a sick person on losing weight – positive effect, but a decidedly negative cause.
“High gasoline prices, a slow economy and – ironically enough – a cool summer caused U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to fall nearly 3% in 2008 from 2007 levels, the Environmental Protection Agency reported today.
“It’s the largest year-over-year drop that the EPA has recorded since it began tracking greenhouse gas emissions in 1990.
“The 2009 decline will likely be even steeper: The federal Energy Information Administration reported this month that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, the major driver of American greenhouse gas emissions, fell more than 6% from 2008 to 2009.
“In many ways, the decline is intuitive. Gas prices soared in 2008. Americans drove less. Summer was cooler than in 2007, reducing air-conditioning demand and more than making up for increased heating costs that came from a cold winter. The economy slowed, reducing demand for electricity (read: coal) to power factories and businesses.
“Even when gas prices fell a bit last year, cash-strapped Americans stuck largely to their reduced driving habits. Meanwhile, the economy – and the demand for electricity – fell even more.”
As I work on UNC’s carbon inventory, I’m noticing a similar trend for 2009. The University embarked on a very successful energy conservation program, burned more natural gas than in previous years, and received a greater proportion of its grid-purchased electricity from nuclear plants, a result of flagging electricity demand in the region.
I don’t have final numbers yet, but it looks like our 2009 carbon footprint will be smaller than the prior year, the first decrease since 2004. Time will tell whether this is a healthy weight-loss, or the side effect of an ailing economy.
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How did the university manage to ensure that its electrons came only from nuclear power? Have they figured a way to filter out the coal based electrons from the grid?
But seriously, in our talks with the utility company, they confirmed that the nuclear plants in the region are base-loaded, running at full capacity all the time because this is their cheapest power to produce.
Next comes coal, with plants cycling up and down to meet daily demand. Peak times are met with natural gas, typically the most costly option.
Since demand was so low, a greater proportion of the power was generated with nuclear plants, a carbon-free proposition.