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The Consumer Subconscious

By Daniel on March 5, 2010

Schönbrunn Horses by Stewf

You’ll have to forgive yesterday’s satiric look at the government’s new “Homestar” program.  I just couldn’t resist the name association.

The press release was fake, but the frustration was real: Why do we need further incentive to do the things that already have a financial benefit?

My suspicion is that the average American homeowner lacks two things: a fundamental understanding of how their house works and an understanding of the time value of money.

First, for many homeowners, the electricity or gas bill may be viewed as a black box, as unintelligible and unalterable as particle physics.  They may come to view the “light bill” with the same sense of helplessness as the cable or phone bills.

But the fact is, there are myriad ways you can decrease the amount of that light bill.

Which brings us to the second, and perhaps more important, point.  People don’t seem to understand basic concepts of investing. Call it financial illiteracy or chalk it up to our “buy now, pay later” credit consciousness, but any way you slice it, we don’t value future savings with the same salivating excitement as we do the dollar in our pocket.

Chris Hunt, an energy auditor, did a guest post on the Energy Circle blog describing ten ways we could improve homeowner understanding and efficiency improvements.

Communicating Financial Impact Is Critical
People respond to price bargains (even false ones, like 20% off of an elevated price) rather than considering the big picture. At the same time, people can be contradictory. If saving 20% on the audit was the compelling call to action that got them moving, why wasn’t the basic opportunity to save hundreds per year enough to spur action? Homeowners will pay high bills month after month – in part because they do not know what they can do about them. This contradiction extends to the investment in things like windows and renewables. Solar installers are very good at representing a favorable return on investment. But even a 7 year pay back on a $15-30,000 investment feels out of reach for all but the wealthiest home owners. We need to do a better job of communicating the return on investment on some of the less expensive but valuable services we offer.

Chris recommends improved education, a focus on aesthetics, and turnkey installations so that the emotional and intellectual barriers to efficiency are minimized, allowing the financial savings to shine.

Or perhaps all this talk of payback has actually hurt the cause of home improvements.  I recently heard building scientist John Straube rail against the current state of the industry.  He said that talk about “return on the investment” is often a death knell for energy efficiency, because it opens insulation, HVAC, or window upgrades to a different set of constraints that other home improvements.

He described owners who installed granite heating elements, to keep their countertops from “feeling cold.”

“What is the payback on a warm countertop?” he asked.

And his point is well taken.  Perhaps the conversation needs to center around comfort, air quality, and occupant safety, not focus entirely on costs.  Efficiency could be sold as a trendy, must-have, keep-up-with-the-Joneses upgrade rather than a geeky, bank-account-draining, albatross.

If the homeowner discovers that she saves a few bucks in the process, so much the better!

Posted in Energy, Policy, Residential | Tagged efficiency, finance, home comfort, homestar | 1 Response

Homestar. Sewiously.

By Daniel on March 4, 2010

On Tuesday, President Obama announced his plans to make Homestar Runner, that lovable armless marshmallow from internet cartoons, the United States’ new Energy Efficiency Czar.

As part of his jobs agenda, the President outlined the potential for energy efficiency improvements, like insulation and window retrofits, to put furloughed construction workers back to work.  He emphasized the need to further incentivize upgrades that already make good financial sense.

“The American people don’t understand the current value of energy efficiency, so we’ve decided that instead of educating them, we’ll distract them with cartoon characters and throw buckets of debt-funded money at the problem,” he said at Tuesday’s press conference in Savannah.

The Homestar program, headed by Mr. Runner and borrowing his first name, will distribute billions of dollars to homeowners who do such outlandish things as air sealing their walls, upgrading windows, and adding extra insulation to the attic.  The program will fund 50% of each improvement, up to $3,000 for some projects.

Proactive homeowners who have already done these things, referred to as “suckers” in the bill drafted by congress, are curiously referred to as “SOL” in the legislation.  The meaning of the acronym could not be determined by press time.

When questioned about his role in the program, Homestar Runner commented, “Doodle doodle loot doot doot doot doodoo. Boodle oodle oot doot doo! And so forth.”

Current Press Secretary Strong Bad was asked for his opinion on homeowners who had ignored their home’s performance and air quality all these years.

He ranted, “Why you lazy crap for crap!”

Posted in Energy, Policy, Residential | Tagged efficiency, home comfort, humor | 2 Responses

GraphDance

By Daniel on February 25, 2010

I admit it: I’m a bit of a data geek.  I am frequently ridiculed for trying to measure and chart things that shouldn’t be measured or charted.

But if you should ever see me dancing my graphs, you have my permission to lock me up.

Now THAT is some serious wonkery.

Let’s hope she gets into Tufts!

via infosthetics

Posted in InfoVis | Tagged humor, visualization | Leave a response

Pyramid of Conservation

By Daniel on February 23, 2010

Those ancient Egyptians were really on to something when the built the pyramids.  The broad base and pointy top really helps us understand that there are some things common and fundamental, and others that are a little more rare.  Brilliant!

Today’s pyramidal subject is energy conservation.

Have you ever wondered whether you’re better off insulating your attic or installing a solar panel?

Well, the answer is: insulating you attic.  Why? Because it tends to have a bigger impact on your energy consumption, and it’s both less complicated and less costly.

Win win win.

If you’ve considered making improvements to your home or office, visit the Minnesota Power website and enjoy the interactive Conservation Pyramid.  Clicking on a strategy will take you to a page with more information.

For my house, I think the next options worth exploring are some more aggressive air-sealing opportunities and perhaps a replacement window.  I’m also intrigued by drain water heat recovery.   What’s next on your to-do list?

So whether you’re a licensed electrician, or people make jokes about you starting with “How many X does it take to change a light bulb?” there’s an improvement project for you.  Including changing your light bulbs!

via Home Performance NC

Posted in Energy, InfoVis, Residential | Tagged appliances, efficiency, home comfort, HVAC, visualization | 5 Responses

Friday Follow: Chart Porn

By Daniel on February 19, 2010

Occasionally, I like to take a Friday to tell you about the blogs I read on a regular basis.  Today, it’s porno-graphic.

Chart Porn, run by DC Economist Dustin Smith, is an all-you-can-eat buffet of infographics.  Dustin compiles links to just about every note-worthy visualization, flow chart, or map on just about any subject.

Thankfully, ecometrics abound:

High Speed Rail in the USA

Global Energy Consumption

Coal Plants in the US

Global Climate Dashboard

If you’re a visual learner (and who isn’t?) and you want to keep up on any field from politics to pop-culture, subscribe to the Chart Porn feed.

Just be sure to change the name of the link in your feed reader, and don’t open the links at work.  When asked to change the blog’s name to something a little less provocative (and incriminating!), Dustin flatly refused.

I guess they really are data visualizations you just gotta love…

Posted in EcoMetrics, InfoVis | Tagged carbon footprint, climate change, electricity, grid, maps, visualization | Leave a response

Chart Wars

By Daniel on February 18, 2010

Alex Lundry of TargetPoint gives a witty introduction to the way that statistics and data visualization are quickly becoming political weapons.

It’s Pecha Kucha-style, so it moves fast! And you may want to put on your headphones if you’re in public, because he does drop the F-bomb.  My ears!

via The Extreme Presentation blog

Posted in InfoVis, Policy | Tagged flow charts, pie charts, visualization | Leave a response

How deep is the ocean?

By Daniel on February 16, 2010

In belated honor of Valentine’s Day, we’re going to go ahead and answer the age-old jazz question:

“How much do I love you? I’ll tell you no lie;

How deep is the ocean?  How high is the sky?”

Well I’m glad she asked.

Turns out, the ocean is pretty darn deep.  That’s a whole lotta love!

via Chart Porn

Posted in EcoMetrics, InfoVis, water | Tagged visualization, water | Leave a response

Mosquito Terminator

By Daniel on February 15, 2010

I went to see Avatar 3D last week at the IMAX theater, and I enjoyed it much more than I thought I would.  The computer generated characters were surprisingly realistic, and the message, while a bit heavy handed, was both convicting and inspiring.

Avatar portrays a race of “people” who are deeply connected to the natural world, who respect their place within that balance, and who seem happier for it.  Of course, it is a fictional world and a fictional race, but I think there’s a grain of truth in the idea that understanding and appreciating the natural order grounds us, and protects us from some of the trauma we experience in the modern world.

To my eye, Pandora looks very similar to the rain forests of South America, where I’m happy to say I’ve spent some time. It is absolutely overflowing with life; every tree is covered in vines, the vines are covered in moss, and the moss is covered in fungi and various creepy crawlies.

As I compared the movie world with my experience of the real world, I realized they forgot a few things: the bugs, diseases, and weather.

Pandora seems so idyllic and appealing precisely because it is so unlike our common experience of the outdoors.  It gets cold, it rains, and I can’t leave my house in the summer without being chewed on by a swarm of blood-sucking mosquitoes.

Rather than appreciate my place in the natural world in those moments, I try to smash the little devils.

Two days after my Avatar experience, I spotted this video from the TED Talks 2010.  It seems someone has come up with a very high-tech way of addressing my mosquito problem: lasers.

A week ago, I’d have considered the ability to destroy this vampiric nuisance mid-flight an act of pure genius.  Now, that fascination is tempered by a nagging guilt over just how efficient we are at destroying living things.

Perhaps this better bug-zapper represents a step forward in our “kill-’em-all and let God sort them out” attitude toward pest management.  Sure, it’s still efficient, high-tech, and stone-cold deadly, but at least the inventors are targeting one pest in a small area, not spraying dangerous pesticides indiscriminately.

Are we striking a balance between the natural world and human interests, or just taking another step down a slippery slope?

via Slashdot

Posted in Nature | Tagged pesticide, TEDTalks | Leave a response

Eco-Theif-o

By Daniel on February 11, 2010

Thief by Jean-

Street Art Thief by Jean-

Just when you thought it was safe to trade carbon credits via the German Emissions Trading Authority, hackers make off with your eco-loot!

Through a classic “please click this link and login to verify your account” phishing scheme, hackers acquired the credentials of some major firms and transferred $4 million worth of carbon offsets into other accounts.

This just seems a bit unbelievable to me.  I mean, with bank fund transfers, the a computer decreases the value in one account and increases the value in another – pretty difficult to trace.  But offsets are supposed to be uniquely serialized and identifiable – otherwise, how else can you guarantee their authenticity and source?

Furthermore, each offset must be “retired” when it is used against a company’s carbon inventory, so you’d expect there to be a database somewhere of the offsets that have already been applied.

So how exactly do you “steal” these?  Can’t someone just trace the stolen offsets to their new accounts?

More reasons to just stick with energy efficiency, renewables, and other conservation strategies, and avoid the whole mess.

Posted in Carbon | Tagged computers, offsets | Leave a response

How to Calculate Energy Savings in a Building

By Daniel on February 8, 2010

It’s an age old dilemma for efficiency advocates: how do you calculate how much energy you didn’t use or how much money you didn’t spend? You can’t put a yardstick up against something that doesn’t exist.

We tend to rely on models and predictions of what might have happened, and calculate the savings based on that hypothetical case.  But it all feels a bit like a house of cards, with our arguments and calculations set on a soft foundation.  Even if stakeholders understand the base-case model (many don’t), they may be skeptical of the savings estimates.

To gain confidence and a voice in energy decision making, we need a few improvements:

  1. A simple model for the base case, that anyone can understand with a brief explanation.
  2. A way to compare different models to each other, so we can choose the best one.
  3. An measurement of the uncertainty in our models and predictions, to set boundaries on our confidence.
  4. A quick way to calculate the difference between the model and what really happened, also known as “savings.”

Here’s my workflow for addressing some of these problems and needs, using my own home’s energy.  The process needs improvement, but I think it’s a start.

This method assumes you’re familiar with a bit of weather normalization.  If not, check out my previous article on how your energy use changes through the seasons.

First, plot your building’s energy use versus the monthly average temperature:

Electricity Consumption vs. Temperature

In the graph above, I’ve plotted all of my house’s energy data before September of last year – data for the baseline months before I insulated the attic and bought a new programmable thermostat.  I’ve normalized the kWh consumption to a 30-day cycle for consistency.  And remember, I’m using color intensity to give a sense of time; darker blue points are more recent.

You’ll note that there’s a distinct “curve” shape to the data, where my house consumes substantially more electricity in the cold-temperature months, less between 60 and 70 degrees, and a little more when it gets hot.  This mirrors the energy consumption of my heat pump in cold and warm months.

It’s clear there’s a relationship between temperature and electricity use, so we can make a model of this relationship.  “Make a model” is a fancy way of saying “fit a line.”  This is not a simple linear (straight line) relationship, though.  A polynomial (curve) fits much better.

Polynomial model of energy consumption

Nice.  Now we’re getting somewhere.  Check off requirement #1.

The line, and the 95% confidence intervals shaded in light blue, give us a way to predict how much electricity I would use if the month were 56 degrees.  How?

That line is an equation.  Specifically:

30-Day Normal kWh = 1912.9792 – 17.5737*AverageTemp + 1.2035871*(AverageTemp-61.491)^2

All we have to do is plug 56 into the equation for the AverageTemp and we get approximately 900 kWh.  Great!

Our “model” of energy use has some additional benefits.  It comes with an R Square value of 0.96, which means our model can explain 96% of the variation in the data.  Put another way, 96% of the change in my monthly electricity bill is captured by the equation above, and is explained just by the temperature change.  Only 4% of the variation in my bill is caused by other factors – the randomness inherent in our daily habits, how hard the wind blows, and who stands with the refrigerator door open.

We could add other factors to our model, like how many nights we cook every month, or change the type of curve we fit, and these would possibly improve our R Square.  But it’s very simple to find out the temperature, and I’m happy with the fit.  We’ll leave it alone.   Still, it’s nice to know we could develop better models and objectively compare them with one another based on R Square and other metrics.  Check off requirement #2.

Okay, let’s go ahead and add in my September-January data (red crosses) to see where it falls on the model.

Electricity Model with Savings Period

Eyeballing the data, it looks like the September data point is close to the prediction and lies inside the blue shading at 70 degrees.  Moving left through the colder months, the deviation starts to stand out, and we see that the red points don’t fit well with the previous model.

Keep in mind – we’re looking only at the vertical distance to get a sense of the changes.

Vertical distance = kWh savings

Thankfully, we don’t need to measure each point individually with a ruler, we can use our model curve to speed up the process.  Just use the equation for the line to calculate the difference between the model and each point.  In effect, we’re flattening out the curve, removing the effect of temperature on electricity consumption.  The result is called the “residual” – the 4% of variation left over when we remove the 96% of variation accounted for in our model so far.

Residuals from the Electricity Model

Requirement #4 – Check.

You can see that we’ve flattened the line, and only the difference between each point and the model’s prediction is left.  You’d expect these residuals to look randomly scattered – if you see a pattern, your model missed something!

You’ll also notice that the baseline (blue) points are scattered around the zero line, deviating by plus or minus about 100 kWh.  You can make a measure of this variation, but we’ll just eye-ball it for now (I’m still working on Requirement #3)  and consider anything within those boundaries to be “normal” or expected.

You have no doubt noticed by now a couple of red crosses WELL below the line – those are my energy savings for December and January!  Multiply the residual by the price per kWh for that month (and yes, this changes…) and you’ll get this:

Savings over time

The line hovers around zero, meaning my model did an okay job at fitting the data.  It has a slight upward angle, indicating that my energy use was increasing over time, independent of the temperature changes.  Not good!

But take a look at the month after I insulated (the first red cross).  Energy use was below the expectation.  It’s not huge, but I wouldn’t expect a lot of savings in a month where my HVAC doesn’t run very often.

It’s not until December when you see some serious savings.  I attribute the $47 drop to a couple of things

  1. better insulation
  2. better control by the thermostat, avoiding the use of my auxiliary heat
  3. we traveled over Christmas and were gone for a week  :)

January’s savings weren’t quite as good, but still respectable for a single month.  I figure I’ve spent under $400 on insulation, thermostats, caulk and foam, and I’ve recouped about $100 of that in just five months.  Not bad, and I feel good knowing I can demonstrate the savings with some solid numbers, rather than guesstimates and a vague hunch.

Sadly, I’m excited to see what next month’s bill brings…

So the question is: how do YOU measure what didn’t happen?

Posted in Energy, InfoVis, Residential | Tagged buildings, data, efficiency, home comfort, HVAC, statistics, visualization | Leave a response

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